Thursday, 3 May 2012

Make or break- FA Cup final preview

Rarely has such a huge amount depended on the outcome of a single match. If Liverpool beat Chelsea on Saturday to clinch their eighth FA Cup then their abysmal League form will be forgotten and the double-winning season deemed a success. Conversely, if the Reds lose to the buoyant Blues then their earlier Carling Cup triumph may be trivialised and deemed insufficient to satisfy both the supporters' and owners' demands, and King Kenny may even be dethroned.

The dramatically different consequences that could result from the outcome of the FA Cup final demonstrates both the significance of the occasion and the seemingly schizophrenic nature of Liverpool's admittedly intriguing but undoubtedly frustrating campaign.

Kopites have experienced the full remit of emotions. From the dizzying heights of winning at Wembley against Cardiff in the Carling Cup final and neighbours Everton in the FA Cup semi final, to the crushing lows of defeat at home to the likes of West Brom and Fulham, as well as endless draws at Anfield against teams we must beat to compete for Champions League qualification, which was the club's stated aim at the start of the season.

This curious phenomenon lacks a succinct explanation. Psychologically, good form has garnered momentum in the Cup competitions while the opposite has been the case in the League. Moreover, the Reds' rivals have been more prepared to rest first team players in Cup matches in order to prioritise a top four finish, whereas Dalglish has, perhaps on a point of arguably outdated principle, refused to engage in similar rotation. Liverpool's lack of luck in the League must also be factored in. While FA Cup fifth round opponents Brighton netted three own goals at Anfield, other teams have seen the woodwork come to their rescue on numerous occasions.

Nevertheless, the FA Cup draw has admittedly been favourable to the Merseysiders. Whereas every round of the Carling Cup brought another difficult away trip, Liverpool have been drawn to play at Anfield as many times as possible in the primary domestic cup competition. Oldham were dispatched 5-1 on a Friday evening in the Third Round, before Manchester United were sent back down the M62 disappointed after Dirk Kuyt's late winner ended their Wembley dreams.

Six were smashed past Brighton in the fifth round, before a narrow victory over Stoke City set up a Merseyside derby at Wembley in the FA Cup semi final, where the ever-improving Andy Carroll headed a later winner after poor defending had allowed Jelavic and Suarez to score earlier on.

The Reds' opponents, Chelsea, have undergone a transformation since Roberto Di Matteo took temporary charge of the Blues following Andre Villas-Boas' departure in March. Despite still struggling in the League, Chelsea reached the FA Cup final following a 5-1 win over Tottenham Hotspur and the Londoners also managed to claim a 3-2 aggregate victory over Barcelona, who are widely held to be the best club side in the world, to secure a place in the Champions League final. With Di Matteo restoring confidence, instilling defensive stability and regaining the support of influential senior players, Chelsea's form resembles that of the much-vaunted Mourinho era.

Perhaps most remarkably, the former West Bromich Albion boss has started to see improvements in the form of Fernando Torres, who moved South in a record breaking £50 million move last January. The Spanish striker even bagged a hat trick against QPR on the weekend, as Chelsea eased to a 6-1 victory over their London rivals. The thought of Torres coming back to haunt Liverpool by netting a last minute winner in the Cup final is a frightening one, although it cannot be ruled out.

Both sides suffered disappointing setbacks in midweek. While Liverpool's second string side were humbled at home to Fulham, Chelsea fell to a 2-0 defeat to Newcastle at Stamford Bridge after a world-class double strike from the in-form Papiss Cisse.

As a result, neither side will head into the FA Cup final with bundles of confidence and it is difficult to decipher a favourite. However, due to their record against Chelsea since Kenny's return- they've won all three contests- and the fact that the Reds have historically emerged victorious from massive matches against Chelsea, I believe Liverpool will secure a narrow victory, in all likelihood thanks to a second half comeback after a typically below par first half display in a Cup final.

Whatever happens, it will make or break Liverpool's season, and could make or break King Kenny's reign.

YNWA

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