Liverpool are facing a difficult battle with Manchester City, Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur in what could be the closest fight for fourth spot in years. While this is interesting and refreshing for the neutral, delighted at the break up of the so called "Big Four", Liverpool fans are crippled with nerves as they face the prospect of failing to qualify for the Champions League for the first time during the reign of Rafael Benitez.
Of course, the only reason Liverpool supporters have come to expect Champions League qualification as a minimum requirment for a successful season is because of the impressive managerial work of Rafael Benitez. Before he arrived in the summer of 2004 Liverpool had only experienced Champions League football twice, in 01/02 and 02/03, as the Reds regularly finished 3rd and 4th which, at the time, wasn't good enough for Champions League qualification.
Liverpool have tasted top level European football during every year of Rafa's reign, thanks to a consistent performance in the League, with two 3rd place finishes, one 4th place finish and a runners up position following a disappointing finish of 5th place in his inaugrual season. This has been good enough to secure Champions League football, and the riches that come with it.
Some might argue that it has become easier to qualify for the Champions League, due to the number of places in the competition now available to the top English sides, however the quality of the tournament has also increased, with more and more top sides from Spain, Italy and England getting the chance to play in Europe's top club competition, thanks to the increase in numbers for these successful countries.
Also, the quality of competing clubs in the Premier League has increased as Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal have all grown and become footballing super powers, due to a combination of mega rich owners and fantastic foreign managers. On top of that, in recent years Rafa has had to fight against the likes of Tottenham and Everton for a position in the top 4.
In fact, in 2004/05, Rafa's first year in charge, Liverpool finished 5th, outside of the qualifying places for the 2005/06 Champions League campaign, however they managed to gain entry into the competition due to the fact that they won the competition in 2005, albeit they had to start right at the beginning, facing Welsh side Total Network Solutions (named after their sponsors) in the first qualifying round.
Liverpool now face a massive challenge if they are to continue to develop along with Europe's mega rich super clubs, who are essentially guarenteed Champions League football year after year.
Manchester City are one point ahead of them, and also have a game in hand, as a result of their massive spending during the summer. Also, Tottenham have gleaned one more point from their 28 matces, however they have played the same amount of games as the Reds.
The outsiders, Aston Villa, are 3 points behind Liverpool, but they have played 2 games less. While the games in hand can be seen as an advantage, it is much better to have the points in the bag, rather than having to rely on taking all 3 points from rearranged clashes, which are likely to fall during a midweek, congesting the fixture list and increasing the risk of injury.
One major fact is in Liverpool's favour though. They have a much easier run in then their opponents. Aston Villa also have a comfortable run of games heading into the business end of the season, however i expect them to crumble as they always do towards the end of the League season, because Martin O'Neil refuses to rotate his side, leading to critical players suffering from injuries and burnout.
While Liverpool face games against Wigan, Portsmouth and Sunderland Manchester City face tough games against Manchester United, Arsenal and Aston Villa. Liverpool do have to play both Manchester United away and Chelsea at home, however they will not have to face any of their rivals for the coveted fourth spot, unlike City and Villa.
Tottenham Hotspur have winnable games in their run in, just like City, Liverpool and Villa, but they face a horrible period in April as they host Arsenal and Chelsea before travelling to Old Trafford. Hopefully those games will be the downfall for the Londoners, costing them 4th spot.
Villa, like the Reds, have one of the easier run ins, with matches against Wigan, Wolves and Bolton likely to earn the Villans 3 points. However, they also face a tricky tie at Stoke, and games away to Chelsea and Manchester City, as well as a home match against the resurgent Everton, who have recorded victories over both Chelsea and Manchester United in recent weeks.
By my calculations Liverpool should earn 23 points from their remaining fixtures, giving them a total of 71 points. Both Villa and City should finish with 67 points after registering 22 and 18 points respectively, whilst Tottenham fair the worst, gleaning a meagre 13 points from the rest of their games giving them a total of 62 points. This would leave Liverpool in 4th, Villa and City fighting for 5th based on goal difference, and Spurs left behind in 7th.
Of course these figures aren't completely reliable as they will be affected by my obvious Liverpool bias (as a Red i think we can win any game), however i believe them to be as accurate as possible. Also, the changes in form that will entail between now and the end of the season will obviously affect my results, making my estimates less accurate, however that is exactly what they are-estimates.
All we can do is hope, and back the lads and Rafa all the way to the end of the season because one things is for sure. This fight is going to go down to the wire.
YNWA
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